Through this economic and industry cycle, short-term management is top of mind for everyone from national and regional packagers to the smaller, independent players that produce, design, convert, and distribute corrugated packaging, along with the logistics firms that support them.

General uncertainty about the economy and the immediate-term strength of the U.S. consumer are pressing concerns. In this shaky environment, leaders are taking steps that make their businesses leaner, more resilient, and more responsive to help them succeed as the cycle unfolds. Topping the list are business improvements that increase margins, along with operational changes that free up capital to devote to protracted growth strategies.

The good news is that while the road may be rockier now, packaging fundamentals remain strong over the long term thanks to drivers that include:

• Rising ecommerce rates. Ecommerce accelerated from 7.0% 10 years ago to more than 16% in Q2 2025, fueling demand for corrugated boxes.^{Disclosure 1}
• Focus on innovation. Ever-evolving trends in packaged consumer goods promote innovation—especially in the food and beverage industry.
• Pursuit of sustainability. The quest for sustainable packaging solutions continues to lower packaging weight and costs while increasing use of recyclable materials. Consumers favor corrugated cardboard for its easy recyclability. A 2025 study by McKinsey indicated that North American consumers view paper and cardboard as highly sustainable, second only to glass and well ahead of plastics.^{Disclosure 2}

In a production-based industry where slowdowns represent an opportunity to retool and resilience hinges on being prepared as demand picks up, packagers must balance strategies for managing short-term pressures against actions that support long-term growth. Leaders bring that balanced mindset as they approach decisions around the timing of capital investment and equipment upgrades in the context of shifting tariffs, currency fluctuations, and interest rate movements.

Forward-looking leaders in paper and packaging are focusing on four opportunities to get through this downturn in the cycle and position their businesses for maximum growth.

Position your business for future success by upgrading and replacing equipment to optimize production while adding capacity or extending your current capabilities.

Market saturation, sustainability goals, and the need to enhance operational efficiency are the fundamentals behind consolidation in the paper and packaging industry. As you consider industry consolidation trends, look closely at how M&A and PE investment could support your business strategy.

At every point in the business cycle, a thoughtful approach to risk management can impact your bottom line.

• Invest in the right team. Experienced packaging design teams, customer service pros, and account managers are in great demand, while skilled operators and engineers that ensure full utilization of equipment are vital to volume-based businesses. Cultivate a supportive, high-performance work environment to attract and retain top performers. They’ll deliver the flexibility and skill you need to help you generate maximum returns.

Manage risk comprehensively. Look at ways to mitigate risks beyond volatile input costs. Can you use interest-rate hedging to stabilize borrowing costs amid rate shifts? Which insurance and captive solutions (e.g., property, business interruption, workers comp) are most appropriate?