Industry Expertise

The ABI consent decree: What comes next for the beer industry

How beer distributors, craft brewers, and industry leaders can prepare for a post-consent decree market

Noah Pozin is the Industry Specialist for the Beverage Industry at Truist. Matt Greer is the Industry Specialist for Food, Agribusiness, and Beverage Industries at Truist.

It’s been 10 years since the 2016 Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) consent decree slowed down the largest merger in the beer business. This summer, the consent decree is facing another milestone: Regulators will either renew the decree or allow it to expire. Leaders in the beverage industry want to understand evidence of how the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) perspective on antitrust issues has changed since the initial action on the merger and how the DOJ might look at a potential renewal.

Assessing the operational and strategic effects on industry players if the DOJ chooses not to renew the consent decree and anticipating how the business may evolve are only the starting points. Beverage companies should consider developing plans to prepare to operate in a post-consent decree world should the decree sunset.

Consent decree basics

Anheuser-Busch pursued its long-running strategy to expand its U.S. market presence with its 2013 acquisition of Grupo Modelo, producer of the Corona and Modelo beers, brands which had drawn U.S. consumers away from traditional domestic lagers. To maintain competitive pricing pressure, the DOJ forced a divestiture before allowing the merger: ABI relinquished the state-of-the-art Piedras Negras brewery in Mexico to Constellation Brands, Inc., along with Modelo’s entire U.S. business. Since that divestiture, Constellation has tripled production capacity and successfully expanded sales of the Modelo portfolio.^{Disclosure 1}

In the years that followed, ABI continued pursuing major strategic acquisitions, efforts that culminated in its proposed purchase of SABMiller, a deal far larger in scope and potential competitive impact. The DOJ subsequently blocked ABI’s attempted acquisition of SABMiller’s U.S. brewing business and its majority stake in MillerCoors, then the second-largest beer brewer in the U.S., on the grounds that it would effectively establish a monopoly on the U.S. beer industry. Had the transaction gone through as planned, ABI would have controlled brands that represented over 70% of the beer then sold in the U.S., raising the risk of higher prices, reduced variety, and diminished competitive pressure.^{Disclosure 1}

To prevent market monopolization, the DOJ mandated another divestiture, this time by selling SABMiller’s U.S. business to Molson Coors and established the 2016 consent decree. Key points in the decree include requirements that ABI:

Allow no more than 10% of ABI’s U.S. volume to flow through ABI-owned distributors.
Notify the DOJ before executing transactions involving brewers, brands, and distributors above a specified size threshold.
Refrain from certain business practices or distribution programs that could effectively limit competition by independent beer distributors who sell or promote competing brands.
Allow monitoring to verify ABI’s continued compliance with the decree.^{Disclosure 1}

Will the consent decree go away?

The beer business looked quite different in 2016 when the consent decree was implemented. The overall beer business was relatively flat, but craft breweries were expanding rapidly, with ciders and seltzers beginning to take hold. The large beer producers already held dominant status, and the consent decree checked moves that would have concentrated even more share in the largest player.

By 2026, a more mature beer business is seeing volumes decline and is experiencing a shift toward ready-to-drink beverages, flavored offerings like sours, and THC-infused drinks. The once booming craft beer segment has transitioned into an era of contraction. An intensifying focus on health and lifestyle dynamics has reshaped consumption patterns, driving significant growth in non-alcoholic beverages and pressuring alcohol brands.

The dynamics of a contracting market apply natural pressure on brewers in a host of ways, including pricing and discounting, customer retention, and channel relationships, among others.

Today’s DOJ is different as well. As it issued new and revoked previous executive orders during 2025, the current administration specifically signaled its approach to step back from actions that focused on excessive concentration in industries.^{Disclosure 2}

Will the consent decree expire this summer? While the DOJ hasn’t stated its intentions, beverage industry businesses should be prepared if it does. Sunsetting the consent decree will offer the beer industry’s largest player options that are closed to it today. Industry leaders will want to anticipate the implications of a world without the consent decree, including preparing for potential moves by dominant players.

As the consent decree approaches a possible sunset, beer industry participants should prepare for a new competitive landscape and use this moment to evaluate potential scenarios and develop strategic plans for a post-decree market.

What happens if it goes away? 4 potential changes.

If the consent decree does expire, restrictions that have shaped ABI’s competitive posture since 2016 will be removed. Without those limitations, ABI is freed from constraints around pricing moves, actions to influence distributors, and steps to position itself more advantageously against both established rivals and emerging competitors.

While we can’t predict what ABI will do, the following are four potential developments that may unfold if the DOJ allows the consent decree to sunset, along with potential scenarios companies in the beer industry should be preparing for.

Pressure on distributors increases. The consent decree limited ABI’s ability to influence its distributors. Removing those constraints could mean more pressure on ABI distributors to prioritize ABI brands, leaving fewer resources for their independent brewers and brands. In addition, Molson Coors or independent distributors could have additional opportunities to acquire independent brands.

Competitive dynamics shift in the U.S. beer market. The balance of power between ABI, Molson Coors, and Constellation Brands, today’s major players, could shift as well. Even though the Sherman Antitrust Act would most likely prevent consolidation of the largest brewers, acquisitions of smaller craft or regional brewers would no longer be off the table for ABI. If increased competitive activity or even consolidation takes place, it could impact pricing, distribution reach, and product diversity.

The middle-tier distribution network resets. Consent decree constraints have limited ABI’s ability to shape its distribution network. If the consent decree expires, ABI would be permitted to take steps to encourage underperforming or less cooperative middle-tier distributors to more actively support its programs and priorities. Strategies to achieve tighter integration or greater influence in key markets would also be permitted. As an example, ABI recently signaled its willingness to make bold moves within the distribution network by selling a New York wholly owned distributorship (WOD) to Southern Glazers Wine & Spirits.^{Disclosure 3}

ABI regains strategic flexibility to acquire distributors and brands without oversight. Whether for greater control over distribution or for tuck-in brands to fill in key market gaps, ABI would regain its ability to make acquisitions and investments without first seeking DOJ approval. While ABI had not signaled its intent to actively pursue these strategies, it’s worth a close watch on steps that move in this direction.

How should distributors and craft brewers prepare?

If the consent decree expires, the beer industry should prepare for both new opportunities and increased competitive pressure. When change is afoot in any industry, operational efficiency and strategic clarity become more important than ever.

This is a pivotal moment for industry participants to anticipate potential scenarios and begin mapping strategic paths forward in a post‑decree environment.

If you are an ABI distributor…

Be prepared for heightened supplier expectations around portfolio focus, which could include increased spending, new programs, or expanded sales efforts.
Stay alert for moves that could reshape the distribution network within your markets and assess how they align with your strategic plans.
Work with your Truist relationship manager to evaluate strategic options and capital resources that support flexibility in a changing environment.

If you are a non-ABI distributor…

Strengthen retailer relationships to defend shelf and tap access, reinforcing value beyond price as competitive promotional activity intensifies
Recalibrate portfolio mix toward products with stronger pull through, differentiated positioning, or higher margins to help offset pricing pressure.
Explore strategic partnerships, shared services, or combinations to boost purchasing power, logistics efficiency, and negotiating leverage.
Stay alert to well-aligned craft brewers that may be reassessing their distribution strategies and looking for new partners.
Be prepared for more aggressive brand-level initiatives to ripple through the distribution network.

If you are a craft brewer or other industry player…

Prepare for potential distributor-led changes as the middle tier adapts to supplier initiatives.
As large brewers jockey for distributor attention, be ready to reinforce your value through targeted programs and incentives to maintain awareness and share.
Expect PE interest to remain active: Periods of industry reset often attract capital. Fine‑tune operations, margins, and growth plans to be ready for conversations.

Find industry-specific support that understands your business.

The end of the ABI consent decree could usher in a period of competitive intensity and industry shifts. Truist’s Beverage Industry team brings specialized industry knowledge to help you work through the business strategies you’ll need in a time of change. Contact your Truist relationship manager to understand how we can support you as you advance your business.

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The ABI consent decree: What comes next for the beer industry

Consent decree basics

Will the consent decree go away?

What happens if it goes away? 4 potential changes.