The Washington brief

Executive summary

• In the final days of the current Presidential election cycle, polls show a very close race with recent trends breaking towards Former President Trump. Betting markets have clearly shifted in Trump’s favor over the past three-week period.
• Early voting data suggest greater participation for both Republicans and Democrats relative to the past two elections. The economy, immigration, and abortion remain the three clearly defined issues cited as most important for voters.
• Key bellwether counties we are watching on election night include Clallam County, WA, Vigo County, IN and Erie County, PA. Larger margins will be critical for Democrats in Wayne County, MI and Wake County, NC. Conversely, Republicans will need large gains in Waukesha, WI and York County, PA to remain competitive in these key swing states. 

Our Take

What Do the Current Polls Say

When averaged out, the major polls show a very close race with recent trends breaking towards Former President Trump. In the past week, every major national poll has had Trump leading by at least two points. The current national average, which includes polls dating back three weeks, indicates a slight lead for Vice President Harris. Additionally, Trump has also pulled ahead (slightly) in each of the seven battleground states where Harris had an overall average lead from mid-August until the beginning of October.

Real Clear average of national polls:

• 48.7% Harris
• 48.5% Trump

Real Clear average of battleground states (AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA, NC, GA):

• 47.5% Harris
• 48.4% Trump

Recent poll trends have had a direct impact on the betting markets, where Harris once held an eight-point lead. Harris also maintained a marginal lead as late as October 6th, but those numbers have shifted clearly in Trump’s favor in recent weeks.

Real Clear betting average of online sites:

• 40.1% Harris
• 59.9% Trump

Despite strong early momentum, the Harris campaign has been negatively impacted by voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Both the “right direction/wrong direction” polls and President Biden’s job approval numbers have been underwater for some time. Additionally, her attempts to distance herself from Biden, by explaining how she would do things differently going forward, have not gone well.

Right Direction/Wrong Direction:

• Wall Street Journal (10/19-22/24) 26% // 64%
• Economist/You Gov (10/19-22/24) 26% // 65%
• Forbes/Harris X (10/20-21/24) 26% // 65%

President Biden Job Approval:

• Wall Street Journal (10/19-22/24) 41% // 57% - 16%
• Economist/You Gov (10/19-22/24) 43% // 56% - 13%
• Forbes/Harris X (10/20-21/24) 42% // 57% - 15%

Meanwhile, Trump has been able to largely stay out of the gaffe spotlight, while also using snippets of recent Harris interviews as the backdrop for a series of very effective advertisements. These ads have been so impactful that Democrats in down-ballot battleground state races are reacting to them in their own campaigns, often noting they worked with Trump on the issues being spotlighted. If their reactions can be construed as “taking sides” with Trump on key issues, that is a strong indication that trends do not bode well for Harris. [H3] Issues remain divergent, independent voters critical

Early Voting

Thus far, record early votes have been cast in person and via mail-in ballots, but the key question remains: WHO is voting early? We can determine party affiliation, but motivation is unclear. Are these “motivated” low propensity voters, or regulars voting early due to a pull-forward in election dates? We do know that the Republicans are joining Democrats for early voting in greater numbers than the past two elections. Interestingly, and unlike in previous elections, Republicans are proactively tracking and contacting registered voters to ensure participation follow-through. If Republicans deliver those who have yet to vote, it would be a material improvement in their ground game.

Where We Are Watching

On election night, we will be focused on several key counties given 1) their history of picking prior winners, and 2) their importance in determining critical swing state outcomes. We will also be looking at certain other county elections where both Republicans and Democrats need large margins to help them win key states.

Bellwethers:

Clallam County, WA:

• The only jurisdiction (out of 3,000+ U.S. counties) that has picked correctly in every election since 1980.

Vigo County, IN:

• Has picked correctly in 31 out of 34 elections going back to 1888, but was not correct in 2020.

Erie County, PA:

• 2016: Trump +1.6%
• 2020: Biden +1.0%

Northampton County, PA:

• 2016: Trump +3.8%
• 2020: Biden +0.7%

Saginaw County, MI:

• 2016: Trump +1.0%
• 2020: Biden +0.002%

Kent County, MI:

• 2016: Trump +3.1%
• 2020: Biden +6.1%

Maricopa County, AZ:

• 2016: Trump +2.9%
• 2020: Biden +2.2%

New Hanover County, NC:

• 2016: Trump +3.9%
• 2020: Biden +2.2%

Representative Key Counties where big numbers matter:

Democrats:

Wayne County, MI:

• 2016: Clinton +37.1%
• 2020: Biden +38.1%

Wake County, NC:

• 2016: Clinton +20.2%
• 2020: Biden +26.5%

Republicans:

Waukesha County, WI:

• 2016: Trump +26.7%
• 2020: Trump +20.8%

York County, PA:

• 2016: Trump +30.6%
• 2020: Trump +25.0%

While there is some evidence that current poll trends favor Trump nationally, and in the battleground states, there is clarity with respect to the key issues for voters: the economy is first in importance, followed by immigration and abortion. Perspectives on these issues differ by party, age, and sex of the respondent. With numerous down-ballot races notably close, what is likely to determine control of the House and Senate is how these issues resonate with voters just prior to the election. Democrats have been pushing to elevate concerns around abortion rights, while simultaneously tempering the focus on immigration policy. Conversely, Republicans have focused heavily on immigration in recent weeks – a strategy that appears to be paying dividends. In many toss-up states, key issues driving the debate appear “better” for the Republicans. While it remains very close, with a wide range of possible outcomes still in play, the recent shift marks the best momentum the GOP has had in this cycle.

Bottom line

This election remains very close, but it has shifted towards the Republicans. While many possible outcomes remain, under almost all scenarios, government in Washington will be closely divided as both the House and Senate majorities will only be a small number of seats. Our expectation is that a closely divided nation is about to elect a closely divided government in a photo finish that might take a few days for the judges to evaluate.