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2026 Economic & Market Outlook: Seventh Inning Stretch

SPECIAL COMMENTARY

December 4, 2025

We’re in the seventh inning stretch – time to take a pause and assess where we are in the cycle. The evidence suggests we are neither early in the cycle nor at the end. The economic expansion began in 2020, and the bull market has endured since the fall of 2022.

History suggests both have room to run. Economic expansions don’t end simply due to age, and of the seven prior bull markets that extended beyond three years, all posted gains in year four.

Key Themes

In 2026, we expect an uptick in the pace of the U.S. economy to 2.3%, supported by relief from tax changes, Fed rate cuts towards 3%, greater stability on tariffs, and ongoing AI-and tech-driven capital spending. Collectively, these factors should help extend the cycle.

In this environment, profits remain the cornerstone of sustaining the equity bull market. While narratives have shifted from one concern to another, corporate earnings have proven remarkably resilient. We estimate low double-digit earnings growth in 2026.

Historical patterns, including strong post-rate-cut performance and gains in similar cycles, reinforce the potential for high single- to low double-digit market returns.

For example, midterm elections could reshape the political landscape; historically, these years deliver positive but more modest market returns, often accompanied by deeper intra-year pullbacks. Thus, the weight of the evidence indicates the market’s upward trajectory should continue, though curveballs and opportunities will likely call for tactical shifts.

We start off the year still leaning into our power hitters– technology and AI, which are dominant themes driving this bull market. Our work shows that the leaders of a bull market tend to endure to the end of the cycle, notwithstanding periodic pullbacks and rotations.

The concentration in star players remains a risk, but they’ve performed well so far, and we’re sticking with them. At the same time, we anticipate broader market participation compared to the past year and view modest small cap exposure as a way to capture this opportunity.

We remain biased toward Team USA, though we are still finding ample opportunities across international equity markets.

We continue to look at high quality bonds as consistent hitters within a portfolio context while alternative investments for qualified investors can help to expand the playbook. We also still value the diversification benefits of gold, coming off an MVP season in 2025.

While we view this as the seventh inning stretch, there’s always the possibility the game goes into extra innings – or gets rained out early.

As always, we will continue to follow the weight of the evidence and keep an open mind as the year evolves.

Download the 2026 Economic & Market Outlook to hear expectations for the economy, markets and your portfolio.