A look back
- Global markets steadied amid a heavy slate of economic data and events, holding firm after weakness in the prior week. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, led by the technology sector. International markets saw more modest gains last week.
- Following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Warsh’s hawkish-leaning remarks at Jackson Hole, the U.S. Treasury curve flattened as yields rose by more at the short end. The 2-year yield finished the week 0.12% higher at 4.35% and the 10-year ended the week near where it began at 4.72%.
- Revisions to 2Q U.S. gross domestic product left the growth rate unchanged at a 1.5% annualized rate. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), rose 3.3% from a year ago in July and remains above target.
A look ahead
- Labor market data will be the primary macro focus this week. The July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data is scheduled for Tuesday, followed by the August nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. After July’s downward surprise, consensus expectations call for a rebound in job gains.
- U.S. crude oil remains elevated in the mid-$80 range amid an ongoing standoff in the U.S.-Iran conflict. In recent weeks, the U.S. strategy has shifted toward economic suppression after six months of conflict.
- Economic releases: July JOLTS, August ISM Manufacturing & Services, August Nonfarm Payrolls.
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