A look back
- Most major equity indices globally ended the week lower with the S&P 500 down 1.9%, international developed markets 1.3% lower, and emerging markets 4.4% lower. A notable exception was U.S. small caps, which gained 3.1%.
- U.S. Treasury yields declined alongside falling U.S. crude oil prices, which dropped to just below $70. The 2-year yield finished at 4.08% as the 10-year ended at 4.37%.
- The final revision to 1Q gross domestic product (GDP) showed the U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate, up from the prior estimate of 1.6%. On inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), rose 3.4% year over year in May.
A look ahead
- In the holiday-shortened week ahead, the labor market will be a primary focus. Tuesday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) release will provide insight into labor demand, including the number of job openings, hiring activity, and employee turnover.
- The June Jobs Report will close out the week on Thursday with consensus expectations calling for a slower pace of job gains compared to the prior month, while the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%.
- Economic releases: JOLTS, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing.
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