A look back
- The S&P 500 ended 2025 on a softer final week but secured its third straight year of double-digit gains. International developed markets closed the year on a stronger note, outperforming U.S. large caps in 2025 by the widest margin since 1993.
- The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened last week as longer-term yields rose and shorter-term yields edged lower. The 10-year closed 2025 at 4.16%, down from 4.57% at the end of 2024.
- December Federal Open Market Committee minutes signaled support for pausing additional rate cuts after the recent 25bp (0.25%) reduction as labor market cooling and easing inflation risks tilted the discussions toward caution.
A look ahead
- Despite the U.S. ousting of Venezuela’s president over the weekend, oil markets remain mostly steady, reflecting Venezuela’s limited contribution of less than 1% of global production supply.
- The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), due mid‑week, will offer updated trends in openings, hires, and separations. On Friday, the key jobs report will show whether recent softness extended into December, with forecasts calling for unemployment to ease to 4.5%.
- Economic releases: ISM Manufacturing & Services, November JOLTS Job Openings, December Jobs Report, Consumer Sentiment.
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