GOOOOOOAALLLL! U.S. is scoring in more places than just the field

Trend watch

U.S. hotels are definitely getting a boost from this summer’s World Cup. While occupancy is up slightly, at 71.3% for the week ending June 20^th, the average daily rate jumped to $178.03. That’s a new all-time high and up 8.4% from a year ago.

Additionally, revenue per available room (RevPAR)―a key hospitality metric―jumped 41% on average on game day in the host cities for the 21 matches last week, according to Truist Securities Lodging analyst C. Patrick Scholes.

Weekly U.S. air passenger counts also continued to climb, reaching 19.4 million in the past 7-day period. That’s the highest pace this year. At this point, it appears that the mid-summer peak – in mid-to-late July – will land somewhere close to our expectations for 20 million.

On the back to office front, the Kastle Back to Work Barometer—based on daily security card swipes by over 300,000 workers in 10 cities—surged to 59.4, which is the highest since the pandemic. That suggests a growing number of white-collar workers are once again office dwellers, though the rate varies widely. For instance, it’s at a reading of 82.9 in Austin, but roughly half that in Philadelphia, at just 42.8.

Our take

It was another heavy week in terms of data releases. Gross domestic product (GDP) – one of the most backward-looking indicators – showed that first quarter growth was remarkably resilient despite the dual headwinds of the Iran War and a sharp spike in gasoline prices. The ability of the economy to absorb these shocks underscores the underlying strength of domestic demand. Notably, a significant jump in technology spending helped propel overall business investment higher, reinforcing the role of innovation and digital infrastructure as key drivers of growth.

Stable income growth and still-solid labor market conditions appear to be supporting consumer spending, even in the face of inflationary pressures, especially at the gasoline pump. This resilience has been central to sustaining broader economic momentum, helping offset pockets of weakness in other sectors.

Speaking of which, the headwind from gasoline prices seems set to flip to a tailwind. Gasoline prices peaked in late May, offering an early sign of relief after a period of elevated energy costs. Even so, prices still have further to decline, suggesting an additional tailwind for consumers in the months ahead. A continued easing in fuel costs would help improve real purchasing power, particularly for lower- and middle-income households that are more sensitive to energy price swings.

Housing remains stuck in a bad neighborhood. New home sales declined again in May and are now hovering near their lowest levels since 2022. Elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints continue to weigh on demand, suggesting that residential investment is likely to remain a drag on growth.

Elsewhere, durable goods orders were distorted by a sharp drop in aircraft bookings, masking a more stable underlying trend. Core orders, which better reflect business investment intentions, continue to show strength. This aligns with broader survey data, where S&P Global’s manufacturing gauge continues to climb, while services activity appears to be stabilizing—together pointing to a moderate but ongoing expansion in economic activity.

Bottom Line

The U.S. economy appears to be demonstrating resilience despite geopolitical uncertainty. Broader data suggest moderating inflation alongside steady growth, with the recent drop in energy prices offering some near-term relief to consumers and supporting purchasing power. Based on current conditions, we believe the bar remains high for a 2026 Fed rate hike.