With overconfidence bias, an investor may overestimate their own knowledge, predictive ability, or the accuracy of their information, leading them to make decisions with more certainty than is justified.
Confidence is great, but our attitudes and emotions, not just our knowledge, play a part in building up our confidence.
Take this example of investors who felt very confident with a particular type of investment: The FINRA Foundation National Financial Capability Study polled investors on various investing topics. More than three-quarters of investors who reported making investments on margin answered a basic question about margins incorrectly on a quiz—a clear case of overconfidence guiding their decision-making.Disclosure 2 Research shows overconfidence correlates with excessive trading and poorer performance—not just ignorance of concept.
Overconfidence bias can also show up in choosing to invest most often in the one or two industries where you feel most knowledgeable. For physicians, those may be opportunities related to pharmaceuticals, healthcare, medical technology, and the like.