Thanksgiving travel surge and lots to be thankful for

Trend watch

It’s a holiday-shortened week. Of course, Thanksgiving means travelling to see family for many Americans, motorist club AAA estimates that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 25^th to Monday, December 1^st. That would top the all-time record set last year by 2.0%. The bulk, about 73 million or roughly 90%, will drive. Thankfully, U.S. gasoline prices are practically flat (up 0.4%) from a year ago (slide 7).

We anticipate that weekly air passenger counts should jump from 17.7 million in the past 7 days – up 13.7% from the prior week – to about 18.2 million in the final week of November. That would put Thanksgiving week roughly 0.9% above last year.

As a reminder, on slides 3 and 4, we marked the indicators impacted by the federal government shutdown in red and changed the trend to “Ø” once a data release was missed since a stale trend can’t be relied upon. 

Our take

There are many things to be thankful of during this Thanksgiving holiday. Indeed, time off with family and friends is at the top of the list. Economically, our time off typically translates into increased activity – hosting get togethers, larger meals, and perhaps some specialty foods and beverages. It’s also customarily coupled with at least some travel –whether driving (local or long distance), flying, or cruising.

Thanksgiving also marks a change of season. For instance, the weather is getting cooler, which generally means less outdoor activity, especially in northern areas. That translates into different plants and crops as well. It also means a shift from fishing to hunting for most areas along with different species, including from deer to ducks and geese.

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In case you’re wondering, the main turkey season in most U.S. states is in the spring, when gobblers are most active during the mating season, often between March and May. Most states also allow some sort of limited fall turkey season, often occurring after hens have finished nesting. Turkey hunting remains very popular in the U.S. and is the second most popular game hunting after whitetail deer.

It’s also a time for reflection. Economically, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has a lot to reflect upon as the deluge of data catching up following the 43-day government shutdown continues. While the statistical agencies have released at least some of the backlogged data series – most are now current through September, most of the October data remains delayed, and it will be several weeks before it’s all caught up. In some instances, data for October and November will be combined when it's released in December.

To wit, the all-important jobs data is impacted. The October data will be released together with the November data on December 16^th, which is the week after the Fed’s December 10^th meeting. Likewise, the most of the key inflation data won’t be released prior to the Fed meeting. Alas, the lack of timely key economic data complicates the Fed’s near-term decision-making.

We think that these complications probably makes a December rate cut a bit of a long shot. Investors – based on futures markets currently pricing in an 80% chance of a rate reduction – seem to be convinced otherwise following public comments by a few Fed officials this week.

Indeed, Fed voters remain split, with distinct ‘pause’ and ‘keep cutting’ camps. Moreover, as we count the votes – based on their recent public statements – the committee appears evenly divided. That makes it more of a toss up. Accordingly, markets projecting such certainty that the December decision will be either outcome seems misplaced to us.

Regardless, the market seems to be generating unnecessary angst around the December meeting. Whether the Fed continues cutting or holds rates in December likely won’t alter the trajectory of interest rates a few months from now—lower rates clearly remain the goal to address employment risks amid a gradual glidepath toward taming inflation. In that context, the December decision is less important, especially knowing that there’s another rate-setting meeting coming about seven weeks later. In other words, nothing magical happens if they do or don’t cut rates at the December meeting.

In closing, we’re very thankful for our close friends, family, and teammates. We’re truly grateful for the joy and energy you bring—making life richer, more fun, and absolutely worthwhile – even the “extra spicy” ones, who really keep us on our toes! We hope you’re able to take some time to enjoy, reflect, and relax.  

Bottom line

The U.S. economy remains resilient, while continuing to navigate uncertainty from the government shutdown and limited economic data. Be prepared that we probably won't get a clean read on the economy until early 2026. As such, we expect the Fed to remain cautious; a December rate cut is a toss up given missing timely economic data.

We wish you a Happy Thanksgiving!!!