A look back
- Global markets were volatile, but little changed on the surface as the market continued to digest geopolitical tensions. The S&P 500 rose 0.13% for its second straight weekly gain and the Nasdaq added 0.40%. International markets were weaker, falling 0.16% on the week, and emerging markets finishing 0.26% higher.
- A global bond selloff dominated the past week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finished the week at 4.77%, touching its highest intraday level since November 2023. The 2-year finished slightly lower at 4.37%, leaving the curve slightly steeper.
- August nonfarm payrolls surged 162k, the strongest month since March. Strong economic data, combined with oil prices rising to $91.5, continue to raise market expectations of FOMC rate hike in September.
A look ahead
- August PPI and CPI will be released later this week. Inflation is the key swing factor heading into next weeks Fed meeting as the market and policy makers will be keeping a close eye on realized inflation risks.
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions have continued to drive oil prices higher. Renewed U.S. strikes and a continued standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, combined reescalation of tariff concerns may complicate the Fed’s decision next week.
- Economic releases: August CPI, August PPI, Existing Home Sales, U. of M. Consumer Sentiment.
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