Global economic outlook – another strong growth year is projected

Eylem Senyuz 

Senior Global Macro Strategist

Truist Advisory Services, Inc.

Key takeaways

We think the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) global economic growth estimate of 4.4% for 2022 is achievable, despite being above historical averages and coming on the heels of a strong 2021.

Projections show Japan and pockets of Europe to post higher growth rates than 2021. We expect 3.8%-4.5% economic growth for the U.S. economy, at least double the growth rate of an average year while China, is expected to grow close to 5% led by a synchronized recovery in global demand.

Risks to this outlook are rising inflation expectations and geopolitical conflict, such as a Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Back to back strong recovery

After growing at a 3.9% average in 2000s, the world economy dropped to an average of 2.9% in the 2010s. The economic contraction in 2020, -3.5% set the record low for the IMF's dataset since 1980 (Chart 1), only to be followed by an upward record in 2021. 2022 projections of 4.4% growth are higher than the average growth rates we have experienced during the previous two decades.

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