Economic Commentary

Economic Commentary

December 2, 2022

Job growth surprisingly resilient in November, still not cooling enough to stop the Fed’s rate hikes

Executive summary

U.S. payrolls in November increased by 263,000, above the consensus of 200,000, though it was coupled with downward revisions of 23,000 to the prior months, pulling down the six-month average to 323,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, but the labor force participation rate edged lower.

More importantly, average hourly earnings ticked higher from October and remains well-above the pre-pandemic rate. The same occurred for rank & file workers. This indicates a stronger economy than many are giving it credit. Yet, below the surface, substantial cracks are visible, especially on the industry level, including general merchandisers and temporary help. 

Ultimately, the labor market is cooling but remains surprisingly resilient. Thus, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue hiking interest rates to further slow the economy. However, with cooling inflationary pressures elsewhere, we believe that the Fed will stepdown the size of hikes to 0.50% at the December 14 meeting after four supersized rate hikes of 0.75%. Lastly, investors may largely ignore this report since it doesn’t change the prospects of higher interest rates nor the likelihood of a recession. 

September labor data table   nemployment, payroll and earnings data for the prior six months. Payrolls: 6-month average fell to the slowest pace since the reopening period in 2020. Net upward revisions added 23K for September and October. Pre-pandemic 3-year average was 177K/mo. Unemployment rate: Held steady for a second straight month, while the size of the labor force declined for the fifth time in the past six months. Average hourly earning year-over-year: Rose back to 5.1% YoY. Non-supervisory also rose, to 5.8% from a near-term high of 6.7% in March but still more than double the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 2.4%. Average weekly hours worked: Ticked down after five straight months at 34.5, roughly in-line with the pre-pandemic average. Manufacturing hours slipped, to 40.2 from 40.4, while overtime hours held steady at 3.1.

A review of major industry trends

Private payrolls increased by 221,000 workers and government payrolls rose by 42,000. Service-providing industries added 184,000 positions, while goods producers hired 37,000.

Below the surface, definite cracks have appeared in recent months.

Retail trade lost 30,000 workers during November, the third straight monthly decline. Much of the pain was within general merchandise stores, which lost 32,200 jobs, offsetting small gains elsewhere. Since March, general merchandise stores have lost 129,000 positions. Apparel stores have also clipped workers, including 5,000 in this past month.

Similarly, tucked within professional & business services, temporary help shed 17,200 workers in November. Following prior monthly revisions, temporary help declined for the fourth month in a row, or a cumulative total of -46,500.

Warehousing & storage cut 12,500 workers in November, the fifth straight decline for a total of 63,500 positions. Couriers have lost 14,000 over that same span.

On the other hand, leisure & hospitality added 88,000 workers in the month, with more than two-thirds hired at restaurants (62,100). Still, the leisure & hospitality industry remains 980,000 workers below pre-pandemic levels.

Government payrolls increased after experiencing losses during the spring and summer. Most of the recent gains have been within education, including 24,300 during November.

Lastly, health care has finally recovered to pre-pandemic levels, having lagged nearly every other major industry group except government and leisure & hospitality. 

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