Annual Outlook 2022 – positive yet realistic with Keith Lerner

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[Keith Lerner] Hello everyone, and thanks for joining us. I’m Keith Lerner here to give you a brief overview of our Annual Outlook. 

Two words come to mind as we look back at 2021 and really the past two years. Adaptability. And Resilience.

The pandemic continues on, and – to be sure – many challenges remain. Still, the global economy is set to end 2021 with the fastest growth rate since 1973. And the U.S. stock market is experiencing the strongest rebound in modern history. 

This sharp comeback in the time of a pandemic is remarkable. 

And it speaks to the swift action by policy makers and the rapid development of vaccines. But also how quickly consumers and corporations adapted.

In fact, our bullish outlook over the past two years was underpinned by our view that corporate earnings were underappreciated. And we’ve seen profits rebound to new highs and simply blow away expectations.

Looking ahead – for 2022, we remain positive, yet realistic.

  • Our macro team has high conviction that the global economy will grow well above trend, though a notch lower than 2021. Growth will be aided by a continued transition from a stimulus-led recovery to a good old-fashioned consumer- and business-led expansion.
  • Yet, we’re realistic that COVID-19 challenges remain and that access to vaccines and advanced medical care has created a bifurcated global economic recovery.
  • We have conviction that the bull market will extend and that stocks remain attractive on a relative basis.
  • We’re realistic that returns are likely to be much more modest. Consider that we’ve had the strongest start to a bull market in history and policy accommodation is waning. We expect more normal pullbacks in the stock market relative to the unusually shallow setbacks of the past year.
  • Our fixed income team has conviction that interest rates are too low relative to the strong economic outlook. Yields should move higher. 
  • But our team is also realistic. The mounting uncertainty around COVID-19 and inflationary pressures is creating the widest distribution of potential outcomes for fixed income markets since the global financial crisis.

These themes form the backdrop for our tactical positioning heading into 2022. 

Our team maintains a more favorable view of stocks relative to bonds and cash. 

We’re sticking with our long-standing U.S. equity overweight, see an opportunity in small caps, and remain negative on emerging markets. 

To learn more about our views and recommended investment positioning, please take a look at our Annual Outlook publication.

Importantly, this is a starting point. As the past year reminds us, it’ll be important to be flexible and adapt as the data shifts.

Your Truist advisor can help you learn more about how our investment themes will impact your portfolio. 

We look forward to keeping you informed on our views as the year unfolds.

Truist Advisory Service's Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer and  Chief Market Strategist takes a few minutes to summarize key aspects of this year’s  Annual Outlook 2022 - positive yet realistic. 

Get the complete Outlook

To read the condensed publication in its entirety, please click the Link below "Annual Outlook 2022".

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